Palestinians were sold out by a coalition of billionaires: the Trumps and Kushners for the USA, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia—though silently so far for the latter. The quid pro quo was Netanyahu’s promise that the noises he had been making regarding the annexation of part of the West Bank would die down for a while. It is a win-win-win for the UAE, SA, and Israel. Also a win for China’s long game, and a draw so far for Iran. It will lead to the further development of military ties, energy investments, technological amd cultural exchanges. With so many winners, what could go wrong?
Why did this occur right now? The most obvious reason—the November elections in the USA—is the most superficial part of this shadow theater, as the UAE and SA have to plan for either a victory of the Trumps or the Biden-Harris ticket. The normalization of the relationship with Israel, a long-sought goal by the latter, will indeed be celebrated by either US party, and certainly by the democratic party on the whole. Biden hailed it as a “historic step.”
The less obvious and more weighty reason has to do with the new role of China in regard to Iran and Saudi Arabia. In recent developments, China has been signing not only long-term contracts in energy and technology with Iran but proposing investments in atomic energy to Saudi Arabia, Iran’s declared enemy. China has much to win in risking new relationships in the Persian Gulf, and not much to lose. The USA is retreating in diplomatic terms if not in military posture. Its own global dominance over the oil business and lesser need for the Gulf oil is not the only reason for its retreat, however.
Iran is likely to benefit from China’s involvement. It may suffer little in the long term from the alliance of the UAE and Saudi Arabia with Israel. Iraq, Syria, southern Lebanon, Hamas, Houthis, are not likely to follow the emirates and the Saudis. The larger question is that of China’s goals in the area. The fact that they engaged both Iran and Saudi Arabia very recently shows that they are willing to keep these new allies in an unstable equilibrium and to take advantage of the US mistakes. Their military development, however, and especially that of their navy and air force, is not yet very far ahead. Even Israel may be of interest for them in this respect. As many observers have been saying (in Haarets and other publications), Israel may soon have to choose between the USA and China.