Two days ago, Hamas launched a complex military action against many towns and villages in the South of Israel. We do not know what the numbers of victims are. The latest news today indicated that there might be hundreds of people killed on both sides, and Hamas also kidnapped a number of Israeli soldiers and civilians, even children. A cursory reading of Haaretz shows that top officers and intelligence people were aware that the tensions were growing in both Palestinian territories and Gaza. But the new government of Israel had other plans. Their ideas regarding economic development with India, the Arab emirates, and Saudi Arabia now look very distant. But much more importantly, the government’s project of taking control of the Supreme Court and the democratic structures of Israel are all going to be pushed aside for a while. A unity government is taking over, which is not simply to satisfy the psychological need for unity but may allow Netanyahu to detach himself from the hard right. It looks pretty clear or at least it is a distinct possibility that Hamas could do what they did, not only for their own reasons, economic and religious, but also because there was a massive failure of trust in Israel, which the present government, beginning with Netanyahu, is to be blamed for. Many people are criticizing intelligence agencies. We don’t know what the reality was since intelligence is by nature secretive, but it is clear that the months-long struggle about the nature of Israel, the division of minds in the country, the social divisions, and the complete lack of concern for Palestinians and how they can endure an-ever tightening Israeli rule, all of this is partly to blame for this war.

There are other reasons such as the long arc of injustice and violence that spans over the people of the area since around the 1900s, long before many Jews began to flee to Palestine from their countries. And a powerful religious message of justice and peace that often gets derailed.

The military response will be harsh as usual even though the taking of hostages by Hamas will complicate the situation. It has always been Israel’s policy to make sure that they are the clear winners of any engagement. Still, precisely because of that policy, it becomes dubious whether Israel can continue to win, especially if the government becomes more authoritarian, the social differences continue to increase, and the cultural and religious dimensions of the conflict become a justification for the first two aspects.

An ex ambassador of Israel to France, Elie Barnavi is fairly representative of Israeli thinking. He is of the opinion that this second Kippur, like the other 50 years ago, may ruin the fragile equilibriums of the region and even lead to a third Intifada, given the terrible situation that Palestinians are living under.