My latest ruminations follow a conversation a few days ago about power and fascism on NPR (“Why Trump is a fascist”), and a dialogue yesterday between Ezra Klein and Jon Stewart regarding the massive following that Trump generates (“Jon Stewart looks back with sanity and/or fear”). I was impressed by the straightforwardness of the participants in the NPR discussion, and the heightened sense they gave me of their notion of service. They insisted that their service was to the nation, not to a party, not to a king, not to a would-be dictator. Are Donald Trump and his followers fascists? In the case of John Kelly and others, the word is being used by top officers who know the risk of complete obedience.

But the larger question circles back to the US election that is ominously taking place today. It is one thing to wield words like weapons and wonder what is fascistic in Donald Trump or Steven Miller. Or rather, what has become fascistic in them, or what is becoming totalitarian in their view of the world. It strikes me as a completely different question to explain why so many followers of Donald Trump—almost half of the US population—are happy with the clownery. The explanations provided so far are not satisfactory, as Jon Stewart says repeatedly in his conversation with Ezra Klein. Even though he has a sharp sense of our greedy capitalist economy and knows well the moralizing hypocrisy of much of the media, he is not content with the economic explanation.

The economic and social differentiation do play a role in growing and spreading the anger of many, most certainly, and being easily riled up by the likes of Trump. Perhaps capitalism needs this anger to function, as Jon Stewart says in passing. But it doesn’t strike me either as a complete explanation. Nor do the cultural aspects of that anger, or the claimed idiocy of the so-called “deplorables” who are opposed to many aspects of progressive rationalism. As Stewart and others perceive, a better explanation is needed, without dismissing any of the others.

Trump, Vance, Miller, etc., are still sharpening their teeth on the anger of the people and may not even know for what purpose yet. This new form of political search for power has no name yet. One path for it is the slow unfolding of a pleasurable viciousness that was reported by one of the commanders of the US immigration agency on the NPR mentioned above. Cruelty and indifference extend to this day, when there are children still separated from their parents and whose chances of being reunited with their families are slim. Or Trump followers may be both surprised and exhilarated by an ex-president of the USA who advises that spikes be set at the top of the border wall in order to injure those who climb the wall. Or drones that could shoot on both sides of the border, against all laws. And his frequent remarks on retribution and vengeance. Et cetera…

So, the glide into fascism still looks hesitant but there are people around Trump who are prepared to make something new out of the chaotic power of this ex-president. And there are plenty of followers ready to submit. Something in the nature of domination is gathering force. Will we let it fashion the world as it sees it, push away the use of laws, the rules of civility and of proper behavior? This, to me, is the big question lurking behind all of this rot. If Trump and his acolytes are elected tonight, will others have the will, the know-how, and the courage to fight the drift towards what can be called fascism, no matter the danger? Because there is no doubt about the will of a Trump government of bullies. It will use all the tools that are at its disposal, especially scapegoating, to scare and frighten people into submission. It will put laws and regulations at the service of money interests. Its megalomaniac promises to the nation are not about regaining respect but fostering a humiliating violence that could spread and unfold in a dark history that cannot be mocked anymore. This is the ultimate reality show of Donald Trump.

The situation in the Middle East is changing rapidly. Radical adjustments are occuring in the Persian Gulf and Iran as well as in Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Lebanon. My sense and fear are that Ukraine, Russia, both Koreas and Japan, not to mention China are also changing rapidly, though for their own reasons and not because the USA manage to wield their power as efficiently as ever. We are far, to note but a change, from the strange attempt to convert the peoples of the Eastern Mediterranean to the economic faith of the Abraham Accords. Who could have thought that through these accords almost ten million Palestinians were going to be abandoned to their daily indignities?

Israel: for a number of reasons, the right wing government is intent on doing war on four fronts: Gaza, the West Bank, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran. This multifacetet war has goals other than defense. Part of it is a powerful response to Hamas’ vicious attack of October 7, 2023, but other aims are the displacement of large sections of the Palestinian population and the eradication of the last crumbs of political control it may still have. There are about 750,000 people of Jewish background presently living in the West Bank and Jerusalem. Israel is now in a surprisingly strong position not only because of its military successes, but also because the people in the US are worrying about their presidential election—rightly so—and more importantly because the US appears to be losing interest in world leadership. This is happening even though the US economy is far outperforming Europe, China and other countries.

It is clearly in the interest of Israel, itself an undeclared nuclear power, to eradicate the nuclear weaponry that Iran has been working on, according to Iran’s enemies. But now one more factor needs to be taken into account. North Korea has accepted to fight on Russia’s side in Ukraine. What did North Korea get in exchange? Did they get money, which one assumes must be needed when buying the dictator of North Korea? Or more evidently, were they promised atomic weaponry and missiles? Confronted with a much more experienced Ukrainian army, is the use of nuclear weaponry by North Korea imaginable? How is South Korea, which has a very important arms industry, going to react? Is it going to be interested in developing its own military capacities even further? For related reasons, is the conservative leadership of Japan going to accelerate its own rearmament?

On voting day, these are some of the questions that are worrying signs of trouble.

Last week, Peter Beinart published an article in the New York Times that criticized President Biden for having no Middle East policy. He tied this failing to the moral contradiction and blindness that have become the drivers of Biden’s relationship with the Israeli government and particularly his Prime Minister, Netanyahu. In his 2021 inaugural address, Biden described the history of the United States as a “constant struggle between the American ideal that we are all created equal and a harsh, ugly reality that racism, nativism, fear, and demonization have long torn us apart.“ He clearly sees Trump as an enemy that must be defeated. And he rightfully condemns the horrific actions of Hamas. But his unconditional defense of Israel and his inability to negotiate with Netanyahu lead many in Israel and here to question his ethical principles. The US President strongly believes that the core of the United States is based on the notion of equal rights, not on religion or ethnicity. Yet, that is what much of modern Israel has become based on, especially since 2018. For religious reasons, it is unable to write a constitution but it claims religion and ethnicity nevertheless as the foundations of the state. In opposition to many Israelis of the past and of the present, it proclaims that only people of Jewish ancestry can claim a national destiny. In spite and because of their long history, Palestinians are systematically rejected as undeserving of the rights and protections afforded by such a state. And unfortunately, Biden allows his fundamental principle of equal rights to have a major exception and be trampled by the present political authorities of Israel. Gaza has become his signal failure, totally in contradiction with his policy regarding Ukraine and Russia.

Hassan Nasrallah and many other heads of the Hezbollah have been killed by the IDF in a sophisticated operatipn that consisted of infiltrating the upper ranks of the organization and activating pagers bought and used by the Hezbollah. It looks like a great victory on the part of Israel. It is especially a vindication for the present government led by Netanyahu, even though it is even more unlikely than ever that any hostage will be freed by Hamas. I note in passing that Hamas and the Hezbollah have been enemies in Syria. The military action by the IDF means that Iran is on the back foot and needs to be prudent in any thought of retaliation. It needs to be much more careful than it has been recently if it wants to avoid the wrath of the US, especially in an electoral period when everything is so unsure. It also looks like Israel is closer to bringing the US into a conflict with Iran, in spite of US protestations. Another major consequence of the military action by Israel is that the politics of Lebanon and probably Syria are going to change rapidly since the Hezbollah, though not destroyed, will find its influence much diminished and the patch up minorities that constitute modern Lebanon will have to renegotiate their relationships on a new basis. Will it be a pyrrhic victory on the part of Israel? What is certain at the moment is that Israel holds the keys to the conflict and it is hard to predict what form it will take in the near future.

The NYT is calling on President Biden to do the right thing by the country and leave the race. In the so-called debate of Thursday night, he appeared as a shadow of the great public servant he once was. He presently is the only person who can rise to the occasion and bar the way to a second mandate of an indicted Trump by pulling out of the race. He would be keeping his reputation intact rather than be the candidate that gave us Trump. The risk is too great to find ourselves in a strong man’s regime, a dictatorship. There is no reason to run that risk when there are many more good choices in the Democratic Party and there’s ample time to choose a candidate who can take on Mr. Trump. The paper reminds us that it is Mr. Biden who challenged Trump to a verbal duel. The fact that he stumbled when presenting his own vision and responding weakly to Trump’s lies and provocations means that he foundered by his own test. The responsibility now lies with the Democratic Party to choose someone else since the Republican Party is willing to ruin the Republic by being completely beholden to Trump. There is no dearth of prepared democratic candidates, such as Newson, the governor of California, or Widmer, the governor of Michigan.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant publicly says that Israel will not be the one to instigate a war in southern Lebanon. It would only respond to attacks. But it is hard not to think that both Hezbollah and the government of Israel are eager, for different reasons, to go to war whether it is latent or fully blown. Pressures are mounting regarding the decision-making and responsibility of PM Netanyahu that would be temporarily deflected if Israel maintained a state of war. The High Court of Israel has just announced that it is granting the government one month to respond to the petition requesting a government commission of inquiry that will assess the events of October 7, 2023.

A few thoughts about Israel: it looks like Netanyahu and the right wingers that he is a willing hostage to are itching for a full war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Gaza and neighboring cities have been completely destroyed and so the war-bent Israeli government cannot continue to shirk its initial responsibilities for the disaster by continuing the bombing of the area. It needs a bigger enemy. The US does not support this kind of adventure but is in an electoral year, which makes it very weak. The Israeli government and army are far from having destroyed Hamas, which apparently is still the leading force in Gaza and will be the only party the Israeli government can negotiate with. Is Israel planning a full-blown war with Iran?