Obama cautioned against “loose talk of war” today at AIPAC but still assured war-loving and short-term-thinking supporters of Israel (or rather of a certain idea of Israel) he would use US military force if necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Lots of ifs in that last sentence fortunately (what kind of military force, how, what would constitute necessity, and how would “obtaining a nuclear weapon” be defined?).
What is going on?
On one side, intelligence and military specialists, both in Israel and in the US, saying very different things from the politicos, mostly about the absence of evidence not only of a nuclear weaponization program, but even of a decision to pursue one. And of course Ayatollah Khamenei, top of the theocracy in Iran, who was even more clear on Feb 22, 2012, in a meeting with Iranian nuclear scientists, about why the Islamic Republic of Iran is not going after nuclear weapons.
On the other side, all kinds of people calling for military action now: Israeli right, pro-Israel US right, many Republicans, and the usual collection of Christian millenarians. Happy to talk about something much more serious than tackling something they could really do, namely peace with the Palestinians. Worried too, many of them, that Obama really means to follow up on his eminently reasonable call, at long last, for a return to 1967 borders with swaps, and an implementation of the known details of a difficult peace, including the Jerusalem question. Especially worried now that it looks since the end of 2011 that he might win by a landslide given the wonderful incompetence and complete vacuity of Republican candidates. Four years (one of real potential at least, the first one), perhaps more power than he had in the first mandate, and an agenda (or so I hope). And so taking Obama to task. Those are the same politicians and war-mongers of every stripe who didn’t hesitate to sink 2 or 3 trillion dollars—who is counting?—in pursuit of a folly: transform Iraq into a democracy by force, and so get a bulwark against Iran on its western flank, and keep watch on Iran from the East (Afghanistan). It ended up eliminating Iran’s natural enemy and local competitor, Iraq, for a long time. So, they think it’s time for plan B. But I’m doing too much thinking for them. To see them calling Obama on the carpet and be ready to spend more money and lives after this fiasco is rich. And the media have been helping. For instance, no chance that the US papers are going to print Ali Khamenei’s 2/22/2012 address, even with the usual provisos, as Juan Cole says in his blog. It’s one thing not to believe the pope or the leading, hard-line, ayatollah in Iran, say, but how about printing at least a summary of what they say?
Obama says he doesn’t have a containment policy in store regarding Iran (meaning, a nuclear Iran). He does have a containment policy regarding AIPAC, however, or so it seems to me, and it’s a good thing. We need someone with a head here. Kind of sad the White House felt they had to have the president speak at AIPAC, however.
I’ll have to go back to the stream of articles on Iran-Israel-US, pretty much daily for weeks, by the *NYT*, blowing hot mostly, rarely cold (even with Dennis Ross a week ago, playing good cop in a timely opinion piece. More on this later). Because even if it’s pretty clear the White House and Obama are playing a pretty good game of hide and seek now with the likes of AIPAC and Netanyahu, and I hope they don’t leave too many feathers in it, I still find our foreign policy in the Persian Gulf, in the Middle East and in South East Asia hard to understand. I hope to get back to it.